Are There San Jose Voters Out There?

This must be the most "boring mayoral race" and uneventful city wide election season for San Jose voters.   The  "boring mayoral race" is what Dave Cortese described in a recent lunch with his supporters as he commented on what appeared to be a low turn-out by voters this November 4. 

The returned absentee ballots so far indicated a lack of enthusiasm by the voters.   For District 7,  ~ 5,900 absentee ballots have returned and about 50% are from Vietnamese-American voters.    For the mayoral race, ~ 61,200 people have sent in their ballots so far with only 4 more days to go.   Absentee ballots usually make up about 70 - 75% of the total votes. 

In the bigger picture, a less people going to the poll, the more it is favorable to the underdogs.  In this case, Sam Liccardo.   However, for the D7 race, a low turn-out means that Tam Nguyen has a higher chance of getting the majority.  The Vietnamese-American turn-out is quite predictable in D7 with a dependable voting bloc of  6,000 - 6,500  votes.

Kieu Hoang Winery

http://www.kieuhoangwinery.com/index.cfm?


The first Vietnamese-American billionaire decided to be in the wine business.   Over the summer, he  purchased Michael Mondavi Family Estate Winery southwest of Napa and plans to grow a new high-end wine brand for Asian and  U.S. markets.   The deal included  the winery and more than 20 acres of surrounding vineyards and plantable land  in the Napa County side of Los Carneros winegrowing region for about $12 million.  The winery can produce up to 100,000 cases per year.

Kieu Hoang, 69, started RAAS —  “Rare Antibody Antigen Supply” — in 1980 as a supplier of blood plasma. The company built a large facility center in Shanghai, China and now offers a line of blood- and health-related products under their own brand KHKMY.   The company went public in China and he is listed in Forbes Magazine with a net worth of over $2 billion.

 

 

 

Sam Liccardo Cannot Win Over the Vietnamese-American Voters

LSI commissioned a poll recently in the Vietnamese-American community in San Jose to see the sentiment of the community between two well qualified candidates for San Jose City mayor -  Sam Liccardo and Dave Cortese.  

The results of the survey of 325 likely voters show -   Dave Cortese has 57%,  Sam Liccardo has 34% and 9% undecided.   When asked which candidate is more favorable, 65% of the voters feel more favorable toward Cortese vs. 35% toward Liccardo.  The margin of error is 4%.

The Vietnamese-Americans living in San Jose is only 10% of the total citywide population.   However, with to their high turn-out in every election, they will likely compose about 13% to 15% of the total votes. 



 

Free Flu Vaccine Day in Orange County

Maya Esparza On Top in the San Jose D7 Race

You know the city council race for San Jose District 7 is heating up when dirty tricks of sign stealing and defacing are being carrying out.   In this case,  the candidate Maya Esparza and her campaign decided to be creative and show who is really on top of the race.   

 

 

Second Poll Shows Dave Cortese Leading By Wide Margin

With less than 2 weeks before the election, there are two polls  showing that Dave Cortese is leading the San Jose City mayoral race by a wide margin. While one poll contradicts and claims that the race is tied.

A poll conducted by The San Jose State University's Survey and Policy Research Institute at the request of the Mercury News (who is supporting Sam Liccardo) indicated that Cortese  is leading by 8%.   Another recent poll done by the EMC Research for South Bay Labor Council shows Cortese is ahead by 11%.  

Sam Liccardo mean while commissioned his own poll but refused to let the public see the detail.  He claimed that the JMM Research indicated he and Cortese suddenly are tied.

Liccardo is struggling to appeal to the majority of the voters.  He is becoming a one dimensional candidate as he is relying more and more on the Republican base for his support.   His albatross in the Vietnamese-American community is Councilmember Madison Nguyen.   Liccardo is so desperate for the Vietnamese-American votes that he asked for Nguyen's endorsement against the advise of his Vietnamese-American supporters. 


Liccardo knows his campaign is floundering and the latest episode of filing unsubstantiated ethical claim against Cortese is a sign of desperation.

LSI likes Liccardo and thinks that he would make a wonderful mayor.  However, unlike Cortese who spends a considerable amount of time  building his base for the last 8 years by showing up to events, actively reaching out  to many different communities  and actually providing concrete  actions that people could appreciate,  Liccardo chooses to rely on the  endorsement game and the powerful money of the wealthy families and corporations to buy the election.

Unfortunately, Liccardo will likely fall short because he does not have the women's votes and he is having difficulty appealing to the Hispanic and the Asian communities.

LSI predicts a 6% difference between Liccardo and Cortese on election day.







 

Why Dave Cortese Will Be the Next Mayor of San Jose

With the election 3 weeks away and the absentee ballots already sent out,  the mayoral race for the 10th largest city in the US is heating up just like the stifling hot weather that has gripped the city for the last 3 months.

Dave Cortese and Sam Liccardo are well qualified to lead the city.   Personally,  LSI likes Sam Liccardo.  He is personable and comes across as an easy going person.  Dave is intense and introvert.  But  Dave Cortese is a doer.  He has shown again and again that he could steer government resources to do good things for the community with practical purpose and value.   

But election is all about numbers.  They simply don't add up for Liccardo.   In a city where 2/3 of the population are none white,  Cortese has worked very hard in the last 8 years to build his name and a coalition of Hispanics, Vietnamese-Americans, Chinese-Americans and Indo-Americans.  Liccardo is still an outsider looking in.   He tries very hard but he has never really connected with the right people in their respective communities to help welcome him.

In an election where 55%  to 60% of the votes will be from the none white electorate, Liccardo will have a hard time making up the difference even if he wins the white votes.   And then there is the women vote.  It is no secret that Liccardo is trailing Cortese in this important group of voters.  Liccardo is behind 5 out the 10 districts - D8, D4, D7, D5, and D9.  District 6 will be a battle ground but it is leaning toward Cortese.

Liccardo knows he is trailing from his own internal poll and his latest move of filing an ethical complaint against Cortese shows that he is desperate.

What is the prediction - LSI will venture to say Cortese by 6 points.