Polymarket Predictions of US Senate Races

Here are a few of the November 2, 2026 projections based on Polymarket, just want to have a sense of how accurate the online prediction market before the actual outcomes on November 3.  

Note that these are close battleground races according to the latest polling, the candidates are no more than 5% apart and within a margin of error  of +/- 3%.  Races in North Carolina, New Hampshire, Georgia are already tilted strongly toward Democratic candidates that the outcomes are less in doubt.

Alaska

Mary Peltoal (D)                          69%

Dan Sullivan (Incumbent R)        32%

Iowa 

Josh Turek (D)                               51%

Ashley Hinson (Incumbent R)       50%

Kansas

Adam Hamilton (D)                        65%

Roger Marshall (Incumbent R)       38%

Texas

James Talarico (D)                         75%

Ken Paxton      (R)                          26%

Maine

Troy Jackson    (D)                         70%

Susan Collins   (Incumbent R)        31%

Michigan 

Abdul El-Sayed (D)                          78%

Mike Rogers (R)                               26%

South Carolina

Annie Andrews (D)                          53%

Darline Graham Nordone (R)          48%

Kansas Senate Race Could Signal a Republican Political Reckoning

As Americans prepare to head to the polls on November 3, 2026, one Senate race in an unlikely place could become the defining moment of election night. Kansas, a traditionally Republican stronghold that has not elected a Democratic U.S. senator since 1932, is suddenly at the center of the national political conversation.

A Democratic victory in Kansas would be extraordinary, particularly given that Donald Trump carried the state by 16 percentage points in 2024. It could be the first visible crack in a Republican political coalition facing growing pressure over economic concerns, voter dissatisfaction, and declining enthusiasm. Like a dam beginning to give way, one unexpected victory could change the momentum, reshape the political landscape, and open the door to Democratic gains across the country. 

With the New York Times/Siena final polling showing Roger Marshall (R) behind Adam Hamilton (D) 44% to 49% and the Polymarket pegs at 38% to 63%,  the question is no longer simply whether Democrats can win Kansas, but whether November 3 will mark the beginning of a much larger political shift that could cost the Republicans both houses.

The National Mood: Economic Anxiety and Voter Dissatisfaction

A November 2 Reuters/Ipsos poll found President Trump's approval rating at just 32%. Democrats led Republicans 46% to 38% on the congressional preference question. More importantly, 78% of respondents identified the cost of living as a very important or top voting issue.

Among independent voters, 50% said their congressional vote would be a vote against Trump, compared with only 13% who said it would be a vote for him. Democratic voters also reported greater enthusiasm about voting than Republicans, 49% versus 33%.

These numbers point to a potential challenge for Republicans: dissatisfaction with the national political environment could translate into lower Republican turnout and greater support for Democratic challengers, particularly in competitive districts. 

Could Republicans Lose More Than Four Senate Seats?

The possibility of Republicans losing more than four Senate seats would represent a political realignment in the balance of power. However, this outcome would require Democratic victories across several competitive races, not simply a Kansas upset.  Currently the Republican Party holds a 53-47 edge in the Senate.  

The key races to watch include Alaska, Texas, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, and Iowa.  The conventional projection is a gain of 6 seats for Democrats.

The House of Representatives presents a separate and potentially broader opportunity for Democrats. The October 26 Reuters/Ipsos analysis found Democrats leading Republicans by nine percentage points among likely voters on the generic congressional ballot, 53% to 44%.

That national advantage does not automatically translate into a particular number of seats, but it suggests that Republican House candidates could face considerable pressure across multiple districts. Currently, the conventional wisdom predicts 26 to 28 seat gains for Democrats. 

November 3: A Referendum on the Political Direction of the Country

Ultimately, November 3 will be about more than individual candidates and congressional seats. It will provide an important measure of how voters view the current administration, the economy, and the direction of the country.

If Democrats make significant gains in traditionally Republican states, the results could indicate that the political environment is changing beyond the usual battleground states.

Kansas may become the defining symbol of that change. A Hamilton victory would not, by itself, prove that a national political realignment is underway. But combined with Democratic gains elsewhere, it could mark the beginning of a much larger shift in American electoral politics.

Milpitas Mayoral Election: A City Ready for Accountability and Change

As Milpitas prepares for its November 3, 2026, mayoral election, voters face an important question: Is the city receiving the leadership and effective governance it deserves?

The four candidates are incumbent Mayor Carmen Montano, Councilmember Hon Lien, Voltaire Montemayor, and Santosh Sahoo.  Two most favorable candidates in the race are the current mayor and Hon Lien.   

Among the central issues in the race are Montano's leadership style, the handling of public resources, the treatment of community organizations, and the growing concerns over dysfunction within city government.

Concerned Voters Demand Answers

The Food Pantry dispute has become a symbol of the tensions surrounding Mayor Montano's approach to leadership. According to an October 6, 2026, Milpitas Beat report, Montano referred to supporters of the Milpitas Food Pantry as “bigots” and “haters” in social media comments amid a dispute over rent and operating hours. Her proposal to raise the nonprofit's rent from a nominal amount to more than $5,000 per month raised concerns about the future of a longstanding organization serving vulnerable residents.

Accountability matters, but so does compassion. A mayor should be able to address operational concerns without turning disagreements into public confrontations. Hon Lien's proposal to consider financial assistance for the pantry offered an alternative approach to addressing the dispute while preserving an essential community service.

The Steve McHarris lawsuit raises further questions about the cost of conflict within city government. The former city manager sued the city after his 2023 forcing out  by the Mayor Montano, alleging wrongful termination and other employment-related claims.  He alleged that the decision was retaliatory by the mayor for not keeping an employee that she preferred.   In August 2024, Milpitas Beat reported Councilmember Lien's estimate that legal costs had reached $300,000 and growing.

Regardless of the final outcome, taxpayers deserve to know why the dispute became so costly and whether it could have been resolved more efficiently. Lien opposed McHarris's termination, highlighting a different perspective on how the city should handle its senior management. Combined with concerns about management turnover, the case raises legitimate questions about stability, decision-making, and fiscal responsibility.

City Council meetings presiding by Mayor Montano have also drawn criticism over confrontational exchanges and the effectiveness of the governing process. Council meetings should be places for professional debate, public participation, and practical solutions—not recurring political drama. The mayor has a responsibility to maintain order, encourage constructive discussion, and keep the city's business moving forward.

Milpitas cannot afford to let internal conflict overshadow pressing issues public safety, economic development, housing, infrastructure, and essential municipal services.

A Common Sense Alternative

In the 2024 mayoral election, Montano received approximately 35.8% of the vote, compared with 32.5% for Lien and 22.3% for Anthony Phan. If it was not for Anthony Phan splitting the Vietnamese American votes, Hon Lien would have won.

Lien is presenting herself as an alternative focused on common sense, community engagement, and practical problem-solving. Her experience as a City Councilmember and former school board member, combined with her entrepreneurial background, informs her approach to public service and responsible spending.

Her campaign has highlighted endorsements from Milpitas Fire Fighters Local 1699, the South Bay Labor Council, the Santa Clara County Association of REALTORS® (SCCAOR), and elected officials at the city, county, and state levels. This broad coalition reflects her ability to build relationships across different sectors and political spectrums, bringing diverse groups together around shared priorities for Milpitas.

Milpitas Deserves Better Governance

The Food Pantry controversy, the costly McHarris litigation, and concerns about council meeting conduct all raise a fundamental question about Montano's leadership. .

Conventional wisdom demands a change from Montano.  Voters want a new mayor who puts public service ahead of personal conflict and egoistic agenda,  collaboration ahead of confrontation, and practical solutions ahead of political drama.

As voters evaluate the candidates, the standard should be clear: Milpitas deserves a city government with mayoral leadership that lead with common sense, responsible for a balance budget, focusing on infrastructure and economic development, and puts residents first.

Is San Jose City Councilmember Bien Doan a Convicted Criminal?

 Just last week, a mailer sent by Van Le's campaign  to the community regarding whether San Jose City Councilmember Doan is a convicted criminal.  He is currently running for reelection this upcoming November.  

The mailer was a political attack piece in  respond to the Mercury News article published on  May 29, 2026.  The candidate questionnaire asked Bien Doan:  “Have you been convicted of any felonies? If so, when and of what?” His published answer was simply: “No.”

Councilmember Bien Doan promptly demanded retraction and threatened to sue for defamation against his opponent and  anyone who even considering forwarding the mailer or spreading this news.  He also ordered his staff to send out notices that anybody who knows somebody spreading this information, please report to Queenie Ngo, his trusted aide. 

A few days later, Viet Valley News reported the story fully in an article titled  "Criminal Court Records Concerning Bien Doan".   

www.vietvalley.com

Summary of the VietValley article as written by ChatGPT

The VietValley article, titled “Hồ Sơ Hình Sự từ Tòa Án về Biên Đoàn” reports that campaign materials from Van Le’s campaign cite historical Santa Clara County Superior Court records concerning Bien Trieu Doan, born November 23, 1964. VietValley says it reviewed Register of Actions records and certified court documents and identifies at least five case numbers from the 1980s.

The article describes several categories of records:

• E8527908 (1985): The article says the record shows a misdemeanor conviction under Penal Code §§484/488, with probation, a fine and 31 days of custody. It also says the original court file was subsequently purged under the court's records-retention rules.
• C8530335 (1985–1987): VietValley reports a nolo contendere disposition in 1987 involving petty theft with specified priors under Penal Code §666, followed by probation, fines and custody. It also reports a later certification of conviction.
• C8707482: The article reports felony allegations involving possession of a completed check and forgery. It says the charges were marked “Held to Answer” following a preliminary examination. That terminology indicates the case was allowed to proceed; it is not itself a conviction.
• C8733373 and 116360A: The article reports additional allegations involving witness-related conduct. In case 116360, it lists eight counts, including alleged check-related offenses, burglary, receiving stolen property, embezzlement/grand theft, bribery or influencing of a witness, and dissuading a witness. Again, the article describes these as charges/allegations, and the legal disposition of each count needs to be distinguished from the mere filing or prosecution of a charge.

An important qualification is that the article itself distinguishes between convictions and allegations. It reports at least two misdemeanor convictions, while separately describing felony accusations that were “Held to Answer.” The latter should not be characterized as felony convictions without evidence of a subsequent conviction.

Why the May 29 Mercury News answer is important

On May 29, 2026, the Bay Area News Group/Mercury News candidate questionnaire asked Bien Doan:

“Have you been convicted of any felonies? If so, when and of what?”

His published answer was simply:

“No.”

That makes the timing and framing of the VietValley article significant. The article is not merely reporting old criminal records in isolation; it was published in the context of a campaign controversy over what those historical court records show compared with Doan's answer to the May 29 candidate questionnaire.

Doan's answer was specifically about felony convictions. The VietValley article reports both misdemeanor convictions and historical felony charges. Therefore, the existence of felony charges or cases is not by itself evidence that Doan was convicted of a felony. 

After subsequent debates back and forth in various forums on the Internet by supporters and opponents of Bien Doan,  questions were raised from various voters demanding transparency from Bien Doan as a candidate running for office

1.  Have you ever been convicted of any felonies in Santa Clara County?

2.  Have you ever been convicted of any felonies in San Joaquin County?

( Bien Doan lived in Tracy after he left San Jose)

3.  Have you ever assaulted any of your former girlfriend(s) within the last 3 years?

The conventional wisdom is despite the voters demanding answers but it is unlikely that Bien Doan will response.   These are loaded questions and either for political theater or gotcha posturing.  He is currently the front runner with a landslide winning prediction, why risk anything?

Vietnam Untold Stories - Challenges, Successes & Tragedies

Vietnam War: Untold Stories from the South – Trials, Triumphs & Tragedies is a Vietnamese-centered documentary series that revisits the war through South Vietnamese civilians, soldiers, families and American allies—voices often absent from mainstream accounts. Blending first hand testimony with historical framing, the series traces a longer Vietnamese timeline from the anti-French nationalist struggle and the 1954 Passage to Freedom to the South to the escalation of insurgency, village intimidation, and the long aftermath of rupture and displacement. A defining emphasis is chronology: the film underscores that Hanoi launched armed attacks and escalated infiltration into the South beginning in 1959, years before the U.S. Marines arrived in 1965, challenging the assumption that the conflict “began” with American ground troops.

Across its chapters, the series explores contested leadership narratives, contrasting land reforms, civil-society institutions such as labor unions, rural security efforts like the Strategic Hamlet Program, and the cross-border logistics of the Ho Chi Minh Trail. These historical milestones are presented through the human consequences they produced—fear in villages, impossible moral choices, and families forced to rebuild their lives across generations.

The signature contrast arrives in Tet 1968: Admiral Huan Nguyen’s family tragedy, largely unknown because no camera recorded it, is placed beside Eddie Adams’ iconic execution photograph, illustrating how a single image can define global memory while countless civilian losses remain unseen. The result is a humane, urgent record—preserved before witnesses are gone

The film approach is testimony anchored in context—memory paired with documentation and the viewers from all political spectrums will discover something new.

The film is produced by Nam Pham (Next Vietnam Foundation) and directed by Duc Nguyen,  Emmy Winning Director.   The event is organized by Trieu Ha (Vietnamese American Community of Northern California) and Quinn Tran (IRCC and Viet Museum)

Viet Museum and History San Jose, IRCC Taking Action to Keep the Museum Open

 The Viet Museum located at History Park is one of the most important cultural institutions of the Vietnamese American community in San Jose. For over two decades, it has served as a place to preserve and display the refugee journey and heritage of the Vietnamese diaspora.

The museum was founded by Loc Vu (recently deceased) and has been operated by the Immigrant Resettlement & Cultural Center (IRCC). For almost 20 years, IRCC has maintained a leasing agreement with History San Jose, the nonprofit organization contracted by the City of San Jose to manage History Park. Under this agreement, the Viet Museum has operated out of a Victorian house within the park. 

Since December 2024, however, the museum has been closed by History San Jose due to an internal governance dispute within IRCC.  Additional backstory can be found

https://littlesaigoninside.blogspot.com/2025_01_05_archive.html

In late 2025, Bill Schroh, President and CEO of History San Jose, issued notice to IRCC that the organization intends to terminate the leasing contract with IRCC and release a Request for Proposals (RFP) for a new operator to manage the Viet Museum by the end of December 2025. The stated reason is that IRCC has not provided sufficient proof that the current IRCC leadership represents the controlling management of the organization.

The current IRCC Board of Directors was elected by IRCC members on January 11, 2025, in accordance with the organization's bylaws, which require board members to be elected annually by IRCC members. Following this election, Quinn Tran, a retired high-tech executive and former CEO of the American Red Cross of Silicon Valley, was appointed President and Executive Director to replace Loc Vu, who stepped down from those roles.

Since assuming leadership, Quinn Tran has focused on reopening the Viet Museum so the public can once again visit and learn about the Vietnamese American refugee experience. IRCC has provided complete legal documentation to History San Jose—including corporate governance records and board election documentation—and has participated in mediation proceedings aimed at resolving internal governance conflicts.

Despite these efforts, Bill Schroh and Michelle Duncan, Director of Operations at History San Jose, have continued to move toward its threats as mentioned above.   As a result, IRCC now faces the potential permanent closure of the Viet Museum.

History San Jose is seeking to terminate IRCC’s contract without clear legal merit while making unilateral decisions without meaningful communication with IRCC. At the same time, the organization has threatened to bring in a new operator to run the Viet Museum without acknowledging that the artifacts housed in the museum belong to IRCC, which spent more than 20 years collecting and preserving them.

Any new operator selected by History San Jose would therefore likely inherit only an empty historic building rather than the museum collection itself.

As a last resort—after attempts at dialogue and mediation failed to produce a mutually acceptable resolution—IRCC has filed an action seeking declaratory and injunctive relief relating to the operation of the Viet Museum at History Park.

2026 Tet Festival in San Jose - Year of the Horse