Santa Clara County District 2 Election

If it is now official with 5 candidates running to replace termed-out Cindy Chavez for the superivorial seat that she occupied since 2012.   The District 2 Santa Clara County Board of Supervisors was redistricted in 2020 with the intention of having a Hispanic majority with over 40% of the total population living in the district.  However, the registered voter breakdown shows Hispanic at 35%, Asian at 29% and non-Asian, non-Latino, non-Black at 33%.   The Vietnamese-American voters make up 18.5% of the total registration.  

The county district covers most of San Jose City Districts 7, 3 and 5.  The primary election in March 2024, will qualify two top candidates for the November general election unless a single candidate reaches 50% plus one. 

Two relative unknown candidates are Jennifer Margaret Celaya and Corina Herrera-Loera and at this moment unlikely to raise adequate money to gain any strong attractions.   However, one of the viable strategies is relying on their Hispanic heritage to garner enough vote to get into the general election.  The general trend observed across the board in a recent survey done by Viet Poll Media  is when there are multiple candidates in the primary, especially in a nonpartisan election with no real major issues separating candidates, voters tend to vote along the ethnic line.

A last minute candidate, criminal lawyer Nelson McElmurry, is also new to the political scene and with no track records.  With 33% of the votes coming from the usually high turnout White voting bloc, McElmurry also has a chance to survive the primary.  

The two candidates with the most name recognition, money and big name endorsements are former SJ City Vice Mayor Madison Nguyen and Supervisor Cindy Chavez's Chief of Staff Betty Duong.  Both candidates are experience campaigners and have outraised their opponents by a wide margin so far.

Betty Duong is endorsed by Chavez to replace her and receiving the full support of South Bay Labor Council and Santa Clara County Democratic Party.  She is a familiar face in the Vietnamese-American community in San Jose, notably with her work on the Vietnamese - Amerian Service Center.   Her latest significant political coup was the withdrawal of Van Le, ESUHS Board Trustee, from the race.  This is to her advantage for Le would most likely take a bite out of her Vietnamese voting base.  Even though the latest FPPC 460 campaign contribution disclosure has not been posted, Duong has expressed earlier in the year that her campaign fund raising would aim to reach the voluntary expenditure limit of $250,000 or more.  She  received over $165,000 by June 2023.   

Madison Nguyen was left for dead politically after her resounding defeat by Ash Kalra for state assembly in 2016, and of course her involvement with the racist mailer as EVP of the defunct Silicon Valley Oranization responsible for public policy and campaign. Reportedly, she recently moved out of California but returned this year and was the first to announce the candidacy for the seat.  Her time in  City Council was marred with controversy including a violation of Brown Act costing the city over $1 million in legal fee settement, and the majority of the Vietnamese community turning against her for refusing to name 3 street blocks of mostly Vietnamese businesses Little Saigon.  However, she still has her supporters in San Jose and they helped raised over $115,000 by August 2023.

The two Vietnamese-American candidates are trying to appeal to all voters across the general demographics but they are focusing particularly on winning their ethnic base.  Madison Nguyen has reached out for the supports of D7 Councilmember  Bien Doan and Mayor Matt Mahan but considering her political baggages, they are playing both sides of the fence.  With no major differences in policy and ideology since they are all progressive candidates in a nonpartisan race,  it will come down to who will work harder to knock on doors, have better media outreach, and more favorable name recognition.  

Just as a flavor of things to come, there are already complaints about stolen Betty Duong's campaign signs at various Vietnamese strip malls.  Nguyen's antagongists are reposting the epic Little Saigon naming battle and the divisiveness she created in the community.  They even staged a protest at her fund raiser on 6/23/2023 in fron the Dynasty Restaurant in Grand Century Mall.  There were about 70 protestors with signs reminding her about the Little Saigon controversy.

The conventional wisdom suggests that Betty Duong and Madison Nguyen would most likely survive the March primary and face each other in the November general election. Whoever wins will be the first Vietnamese-American to be elected to the Santa Clary County Board of Supervisors.  However, depending on the turnout of Hispanic voters, the White voting bloc sentiment,  and with the Asian vote splitting by the two Asian candidates, there might be only either Duong or Nguyen  getting in the runoff.