With a newly redrawn district where Democrats and Republicans are split evenly and with 20% Independents, OC County Supervisor Janet Nguyen has a favorable demographics to win the seat from the term-out Lou Correa (D).
The California Republican Party is pulling out all the supports for her. She is leading her opponents in money raised so far. Also, the district is heavily populated by Vietnamese-Americans. Thus, their expected high turn-out will give her a strong voting base. Of course, it is only 2013 but the conventional wisdom is that she will be formidable as she continues to rally the party base and reach out to indepedend voters.
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2 comments:
NOT EVENT the info regarding the term out of Supervisor Janet Nguyen is correct, should be 2016, NOT 2018!!!
The given table below is for the "new" California Senate D34th that included "PART" of OC and LA which will be effected in the 2014 election!
You confused the D34th's with OC's and compared "apple vs orange".
OK, Let's go with your number from the OC's last three election.
For the OC, the population of Latino is 34.1% and Asian 18.9%.
If Latino got a turn-out rate of 30% votes in OC as you said (over 34.1% OC population), then their OC number looked pretty good.
Assume for the same turn-out rate for the Senate D34th, the Latino votes would turn out 40.6% (over 46.1% D34th's population)!!!
So far Jose (Luis) Correa, Jon Burton, Loretta Sanchez, John Perez, etc has not endorsed Jose Solorio because their time not yet come, but former Rep. Van Tran already supported Dem. Jose Solorio (Vietnamese voters again divided votes!) plus Union behind as well Sacramento...
I totally agree that not only Janet Nguyen but any candidate "only needs to pull the coalition of Vietnamese and Whites, (he)/she will be formidable"!
June Tran
Check it out!!!
http://ocpoliticsblog.com/tag/34th-state-senate-district/
Registration
38.44% Democratic
35.80% Republican
21.03% No party preference
Demographics
29.00% White
1.40% Black
46.85% Latino
21.35% Asian
Her opponent is a Latino!!!
June Tran
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