In his latest email, Scott espoused interesting statistics to support his chance of winning. He declared that based on his experience, there will be about 15,000 votes casted in this special election. There are 20,000 Vietnamese-American registered voters in District 2; thus, he claimed, in bold letters with red color highlight, he only needs 7501 votes to win.
He emphasized if the Viet turnout is high, he will have a very good chance of winning the election outright. To further remind the community to vote for him, he included a picture of himself standing next to the convicted felon Ly Tong.
In District 2, there are about 120,000 registered voters with 55% of the electorate are Hispanics. The Mercury News predicts this will be a two-woman race between Chavez and Alvarado.
Since this has been a very low key election, the turn out will be undoubtedly low. If Scott can mobilize the Vietnamese-American voters, he will have a good chance of upseting either Chavez or Alvarado and get into the run-off.
But in the run-off, Scott's chance of winning is zeal. As a fringe candidate, he neither has the money nor the support of Hispanics, Whites or other Asian voters to win.
However, LSI has to give him the credit for seizing the opportunity in a 6-person race and hoping for an upset. And when your campaign is partly relying on the infamous Ly Tong to help get the votes, everything is unpredictable.