With more than 2.1 million Californians signed petitions supporting a recall of popular governor before his policies to curb the Covid-19 pandemic, the poll over the summer showed Governor Gavin Newson only barely surviving the recall. Now with less than 3 days to go, he will likely be not only the first California to survive a recall election, but with a possible landslide victory.
With over 7.5 million votes cast, 52% Democrats, 27% Republicans and 21% Independents, the chances for the Republican driven recall is unlikely to success. Little Saigon Inside polling research indicates 59% voting no on recall. This number will end up to be lower to but still be enough to beat back the recall handily.
The irony of course is this whether win or lose, the same cast of characters will be running in the 2022 gubernatorial election. It is after all the wild wild west and there is a lot of much ado nothing elections.
Amassing over $70 million to spend against the recall, Newsom has shifted the momentum and made inroads with his base by focusing on his opponents. The recall will cost the state about $220 million and this begs the question of it is about time to change the recall election process in California so that it will not be easily manipulated by misguided political operators.
A number of suggestions to stop the inflation of recalls in California have been raised like increase the threshold of signatures to 15% instead of 12%. Whatever the solution might be, rest assure that we will have more frivolous recalls and ballot measures than ever since there are so much money pouring into politics nowadays. In 2020, over $1.1 billion spent in California local elections alone. And for the record, $14.4 billion for the presidential election. It is definitely good time to be a political consultant.
