Friday, November 16, 2018

Janet Nguyen Is Ahead by 1,848 Votes

With less than 27,000 provisional ballots in Orange County and perhaps 1,300 ballots in Los Angeles County,  Janet Nguyen (R) is leading Tom Umberg (D) by 1,848 votes in the California's 34th State Senate district race.

All the 4 congressional districts controlled by Republicans represent parts of Orange County fell to Democratic candidates.  However, at state level, all Republican controlled senate and assembly seats in Orange County held so far.  Tyler Diep (R) won his D72 Assembly race to replace Allen Travis (R) with easy despite 24 hit pieces against him within 5 months leading to the general election.

SD34 currently is too close to call.  Can Nguyen hold on to her seat as an incumbent?  The answer perhaps will be clearer tomorrow.

Both SD34 and AD27 have at least 20% or more Vietnamese-American registered voters.

Thursday, November 15, 2018

Janet Nguyen In Another Close Race

After 8 days of counting, the California State Senate District 34 race is still up in the air.   The initial return on election day showed the incumbent Janet Nguyen (R) was 18% ahead of the challenger Tom Umberg (D).  Now, Nguyen is barely ahead by 1.32%. 

The trend is against Nguyen.  She has lost an average of 2% for the last 8 days.  With still about 15,000 to 20,000 VMB's and 29,000 provisional ballots, this race will not likely to end by Thanksgiving.  The official tally for now is  Janet Nguyen - 113,095 votes, Tom Umberg - 110,131 votes

Tuesday, November 13, 2018

The Rise of the Hispanic Political Power in San Jose

For 13 years, the district that has one of the highest concentrations of Hispanic residence never had a Hispanic councilmember to call their own.  District 7 of San Jose City composes of  about 48% Hispanic and 38% Asian,  and yet a Vietnamese candidate has always won in the last 4 elections.

Hispanic voters flexed their muscle in 2016 and it showed in the D8 election result.  Sylvia Arenas, a relative unknown, defeated the well known  Jimmy Nguyen who had the endorsement of  SVO and former Vice Mayor Rose Herrera.  D8 is 53% Asian and 25% Hispanic.  But the Donald Trump Effect drove extremely high turnout of Hispanic voters and helped Sylvia won the race by 97 votes.

Currently, the San Jose City Council has 4 Hispanic councilmembers and with Esparza,  history will be made as this would be the first time we have a Hispanic majority-minority City Council.

The rise of Hispanic political power is now reaching its potential  in San Jose where Hispanic is  about 33% of the total population.  The Hispanic population is diverse and concentrated in D5 (62%), D3(52%) and D7(48%).

For Vietnamese-American community, it will take another 6 years at least before any Vietnamese candidate to have a chance in D7 and D8. 

For District 4, incumbent Councilmember Lan Diep is safe since D4 has 61% Asian.  

Sunday, November 11, 2018

An Election Disappointment for Vietnamese-American Candidates in San Jose

The clock has struck at midnight and it is now but all official,  incumbent City Councilmember Tam Nguyen has lost to Maya Esparza.  With mostly provisional ballots left to count, he is trailing by 654 votes.

In the first head to head competition with Esparza four years ago, there were a total of 13,675 ballots cast.  This time so far 15,194 ballots has been counted with another approximately 2,000 ballots left.  This will end up to be the highest midterm election turnout ever in the history of D7.

There were other Vietnamese-American candidates in this year election.  Here are some results -

-  Richarch Tran won re-election for Mayor of Milpitas

-  Van Truong lost city council election of Milpitas

-  Van Le won school board seat for East Side Union High School. 

-  Both Scott Pham and Huong Nguyen lost their re-election bids for SJ Evergreen College.

-  The controversial Khanh Tran is hanging on by 139 votes.  With almost 4,000 ballots left, can he pull it out and  be re-elected as trustee of Alum Rock Union School District.

Maya Esparza Winning Rematch Against Tam Nguyen

With less than 1,500 ballots left, mostly provisional, Maya Esparza seems to have won the rematch against incumbent D7 San Jose City Councilmember Tam Nguyen.   This is district where Vietnamese-American and Hispanic voters dominate the electorate.   Each group represents 1/3 of the total registered voters.

Four years ago in 2014, Nguyen won by 209 votes with a total of 13,675 ballots cast.  This year, with 14,214 cast (and still counting),  Nguyen is behind by 397 votes.  Nguyen will have a tough time catching up since these remaining ballots tend to favor Esparza.

For years, experts have recited about the power of the swing vote of Latino and Asian communities.  Actually, in cities like San Jose, where there is a majority-minority, the white vote is the swing vote.

In San Jose, Hispanics compose 35% of the population, while Asians is 33% and the non-Hispanic whites is 28%.   There are currently 4 Hispanic councilmembers.  With the likely addition of Esparza, San Jose will make history of having 5 Hispanic majority presiding the City Council.

Note that there are five states where there majority - minority as of 2016 - Hawaii, New Mexico, California, Texas and Nevada.  Majority-minority is defined as population is composed of less than 50% non-Hispanic whites.

The Circle of Life of Navy Captain Huan Nguyen

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