Van Tran vs. Loretta Sanchez - Latest Poll

D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Democratic,

Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Leans Democratic,

Cook Political Report: Lean Democratic,

Rothenberg Political Report: Lean Democrat,

Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball: Likely Democratic,

The Hill's Race Ratings: Likely Democratic,

Absentee Ballots for D47 (OC) and D7 (San Jose)

At last count, about 20,000 absentee ballots have been received by the  Orange County Registrar Office for the hotly contested D47 congressional race  between Loretta Sanchez (D) and Van Tran (R).  The break down is roughly 44% Democrat, 40% Republican and 16% Independent.   If this trend holds true, there might be about 100,000 to 120,000 total votes for D47 race.   There are about 12,000 to 14,000 Vietnamese-American votes expected.

The San Jose city council race in D7 between Minh Duong and Madison Nguyen is also a very tight race.  So far about 6,000 absentee ballots have turned in.  If this trend holds true, there might be about 11,000 to 13,000 total votes for the election.  Of course, this number will fluctuate depending on the World Series scheduling.

Republican Joseph Cao: " I Love The President"

In an interview with the New Orleans Times-Picayune,  Republican Congressman Joseph Cao proclaimed: "I love the President, and I believe he truly likes me."   Cao also emphasized on his website that he voted 68% of the time with the President.

It is not odd to have strong love for your leader but it is strange to hear it from a conservative Republican who voted to not accept TARP money for his devastated hometown (New Orleans) that is still recovering from the Katrina diseaster. 

But again, when you are in a district where 65% is Democrat and trailing by at least 8% in the upcoming general election, it is important to say anything to appease to the crowd.

Tran vs. Loretta Latest Polling from Cook Political Report

The Cook Political Report is an independent, non-partisan online newsletter that analyzes elections and campaigns for the US House Representatives,  the US Senate, Governor's offices and the Presidency. Founded by political analyst Charlie Cook in 1984, it has come to be relied upon for objective information and analysis about who is running in what races, what the most important dynamics are in the races, and what factors to look for as the campaigns progress.

The report categorizes the race as Lean Democrat with Van Tran within striking distance to close the gap.  The race is tightened as expected.  Sanchez had a double-digit lead in July-August. 

Within the Vietnamese-American voting bloc, she is the receipient of an unexpected backlash against Van Tran recently as he tried to use his influence to  block Vietnamese radio shows talking about how the community is displeased with him.  The latest confrontation on the issue of freedom of speech is against the well known and popular radio personality Viet Dzung. 

The buzz in the community is Van Tran and his Gang of Seven are at it again.   The question is not why Van Tran is so afraid of people expressing their opinions about him.   Everybody knows that he is quite paranoid and is willing to do anything to keep people talking honestly about him and his Gang of Seven.  But why he would risk such an effort and give the anti-Tran voters the fuel to go out and vote against him?

Meanwhile, he is using Ngo Ky, the Nguoi-Viet Newspaper's nemesis, to be on his radio show everyday to attack Loretta Sanchez at a very personal level. 

The sentiment is strong against him in the community.  Loretta is well liked and voters are tired against extreme negative attacks by his henchmen.  Whether his strategy will backfire will be known soon enough.  Loretta does not need to win the Vietnamese-American votes.  She only needs to keep it close. 

On the other hand, his spending so much money and effort to reach the roughly 14,000 voters is surprising.   He is the only candidate in California who spent money to buy his own radio show and newspaper to ensure that his message against Loretta are everywhere. 

This is his base, his constituents and it should be automatic and yet he is fighting for every vote.   It shows that he is in trouble with his own base.   For a race this big and he is claiming to be "The Vietnamese Candidate" and his followers proclaimed him to "The Political Leader of the Vietnamese-American Community in the US",  he so far has not been able to mobilize the community.  It shows in the money that he managed to raise.   It is no suprise that he raised 20% less money than his campaign for State Assembly.