The Shaping of the San Jose Mayoral Race In 2022

 San Jose City Councilmember Raul Peralez recently reached out to a couple of Vietnamese-American organizations asking their supports for his mayoral bid in 2022.   For somebody who has neglected the Vietnamese-American community ever since entered office in 2014, it is quite an interesting buzz in the community.   But all is good, better late than never.

And then there is former Councilmember Madison Nguyen and the release of her video leading a private luncheon with the new San Jose Police Chief Anthony Mata at Dynasty Restaurant.  Along for the luncheon were former Councilmember Tam Nguyen and some of her most ardent supporters, the owner of  Lee's Sandwiches franchise, and David Duong & Victor Duong, the owners of California Waste Solutions.  This was her first foray into the local Vietnamese  political limelight since her lost to Ash Kalra in the 2016 assembly race.  And just to make sure that people still pay attention to her in San Jose politics, she has been posting her pictures with then candidate Joe Biden (at his fund raiser hug shot).

Meanwhile,  she is putting out mixed messages about her second attempt for mayor.   Nguyen is hedging her bet waiting to see who are entering in the field.  There will be at least 5 credible candidates throwing their hats in the ring so the threshold to be in the runoff is minimal.   She is confident that she can get most of the Vietnamese votes to carry her into the runoff election.  She can outraise any candidates in the field and if she loses, she would have made enough noises to set the stage to run for county supervisor seat in D2 either in 2022 or 2024.  However, if she runs, she will be forced to step down from her current position from  the tainted Silicon Valley Organization as EVP overseeing its political advocacy and tactics.

If there is such a thing as a front runner, there would be two and not one due to the incredible diversity of the voting demographics.  It is too early to say but  Nguyen and County Supervisor Cindy Chavez are the leading candidates if they decide to run, due to their name recognitions and abilities to raise money.  Chavez has a free run since her supervisor seat is termed out in 2024. 

The voting trends show Latinx had a low turnout in 2020 presidential election and likely will be even  lower in 2022, an off-year election.  The turnout for Latinx was only 64% vs. the overall 72% in 2020. The Vietnamese voting bloc in San Jose is about 13% while the Latinx is about 22%.   Two of  fastest growing segments of voters are from Indian and Chinese communities.   They have the highest turnout in the last 2 elections, averaging 77%,  5 points higher than the city's average in 2020.   

The Vietnamese votes will play an important role in the June 2022 primary with multiple numbers of candidates relying strongly on their bases to carry them to the next round.   Chavez has strong name recognition in the Vietnamese community, whether it will translate into votes, only a strong phone banking effort can determine.   Nguyen has learned her lesson in 2016 where she thought she had the overwhelming support of the Vietnamese community. 

In another month or so, the picture will be clearer who are the candidates since this is big race and money will be the factor.  No matter what, the Vietnamese community is looking forward to have our voices heard.