The Cook Political Report is an independent, non-partisan online newsletter that analyzes elections and campaigns for the US House Representatives, the US Senate, Governor's offices and the Presidency. Founded by political analyst Charlie Cook in 1984, it has come to be relied upon for objective information and analysis about who is running in what races, what the most important dynamics are in the races, and what factors to look for as the campaigns progress.
The report categorizes the race as Lean Democrat with Van Tran within striking distance to close the gap. The race is tightened as expected. Sanchez had a double-digit lead in July-August.
Within the Vietnamese-American voting bloc, she is the receipient of an unexpected backlash against Van Tran recently as he tried to use his influence to block Vietnamese radio shows talking about how the community is displeased with him. The latest confrontation on the issue of freedom of speech is against the well known and popular radio personality Viet Dzung.
The buzz in the community is Van Tran and his Gang of Seven are at it again. The question is not why Van Tran is so afraid of people expressing their opinions about him. Everybody knows that he is quite paranoid and is willing to do anything to keep people talking honestly about him and his Gang of Seven. But why he would risk such an effort and give the anti-Tran voters the fuel to go out and vote against him?
Meanwhile, he is using Ngo Ky, the Nguoi-Viet Newspaper's nemesis, to be on his radio show everyday to attack Loretta Sanchez at a very personal level.
The sentiment is strong against him in the community. Loretta is well liked and voters are tired against extreme negative attacks by his henchmen. Whether his strategy will backfire will be known soon enough. Loretta does not need to win the Vietnamese-American votes. She only needs to keep it close.
On the other hand, his spending so much money and effort to reach the roughly 14,000 voters is surprising. He is the only candidate in California who spent money to buy his own radio show and newspaper to ensure that his message against Loretta are everywhere.
This is his base, his constituents and it should be automatic and yet he is fighting for every vote. It shows that he is in trouble with his own base. For a race this big and he is claiming to be "The Vietnamese Candidate" and his followers proclaimed him to "The Political Leader of the Vietnamese-American Community in the US", he so far has not been able to mobilize the community. It shows in the money that he managed to raise. It is no suprise that he raised 20% less money than his campaign for State Assembly.
Tuesday, October 26, 2010
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