Why Dave Cortese Will Be the Next Mayor of San Jose

With the election 3 weeks away and the absentee ballots already sent out,  the mayoral race for the 10th largest city in the US is heating up just like the stifling hot weather that has gripped the city for the last 3 months.

Dave Cortese and Sam Liccardo are well qualified to lead the city.   Personally,  LSI likes Sam Liccardo.  He is personable and comes across as an easy going person.  Dave is intense and introvert.  But  Dave Cortese is a doer.  He has shown again and again that he could steer government resources to do good things for the community with practical purpose and value.   

But election is all about numbers.  They simply don't add up for Liccardo.   In a city where 2/3 of the population are none white,  Cortese has worked very hard in the last 8 years to build his name and a coalition of Hispanics, Vietnamese-Americans, Chinese-Americans and Indo-Americans.  Liccardo is still an outsider looking in.   He tries very hard but he has never really connected with the right people in their respective communities to help welcome him.

In an election where 55%  to 60% of the votes will be from the none white electorate, Liccardo will have a hard time making up the difference even if he wins the white votes.   And then there is the women vote.  It is no secret that Liccardo is trailing Cortese in this important group of voters.  Liccardo is behind 5 out the 10 districts - D8, D4, D7, D5, and D9.  District 6 will be a battle ground but it is leaning toward Cortese.

Liccardo knows he is trailing from his own internal poll and his latest move of filing an ethical complaint against Cortese shows that he is desperate.

What is the prediction - LSI will venture to say Cortese by 6 points.




 

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