Councilmember Matt Mahan Supporting Women's Right to Choose or Not?

The battle for San Jose City mayoral seat is heating up now that the leaves are turning color for the final stretch.   Both remaining candidates are vying for the Vietnamese-American votes.  Afterall, it is 13% of the electorate. 

 Some Vietnamese-American supporters of Councilmember Matt Mahan are attacking Santa Clara County Supervisor Cindy Chavez on her support of women's right to choose and Proposition 1 which amends the state constitution to include the right for reproductive freedom.   They are asking the Vietnamese community not to vote for her because she is supporting abortion right.

These are the remnants of  Madison Nguyen supporters (Yes, few are  still clinging on the idea that she is politically viable) who claim that Mahan is against abortion and Proposition 1.  A statement going viral on various email groups declares his whole family is all against abortion for it is sinful and that Matt is a good Catholic person who would follow his church teaching.     

The fact of the matter is Mahan is a supporter of abortion and reproductive rights as reported in the main stream media.  As a progressive candidate in a politically liberal city,  this is not a surprise.

https://sanjosespotlight.com/san-jose-mayor-candidate-councilmember-matt-mahan-criticized-over-past-comments-supervisor-cindy-chavez-pro-choice-abortion-election-2022/

On May 9, 2022,  he also co-signed along with 77 other elected officials in the Bay Area an open letter asking Governor Newsom to support and fund abortion in California.  

What Mahan said to his Vietnamese supporters about his abortion stand,  LSI cannot confirm.  

So the misleading propaganda by his supporters is either  a clever lie to create favorable impression of Mahan or Mahan himself playing both sides of the fence and telling his Vietnamese supporters whatever they want to hear and let them attack Chavez on false pretense.

In politics, slyness is the key and a narrative edge on your opponent is worthwhile to craft by any means given the opportunity. 

The San Jose Mayoral Race and Conventional Wisdom

Prologue:   Right after the primary,  with San Jose Councilmember Matt Mahan surprisingly strong but expected second place finish behind Supervisor Cindy Chavez, he had the momentum going to the run off this November.    For Chavez,  anything below a 40%  winning margin in the primary was considered a sign of rough water ahead for her campaign since she was running with big name recognition and against a freshman city councilmember and two other relative unknown councilmembers.   

Another 4 weeks  before absentee ballots will land in mailboxes, still some of the election drama can now be viewed through the lens of the Vietnamese-American community.  With over 70,560 registered voters or about 13% of the overall electorate,  Vietnamese-American voters once again will be crucial for both candidates.

 In the primary, Chavez  won the majority of the districts that are either Latino or Asian dominated.   Mahan,  on the other hand, won in districts that are dominated by established white voters.  It seems that he came in strong by winning the non-Asian, non-Latino demographics despite the fact that they are not the majority voting bloc.    Why, because they always have a higher turn-out rate.   For example in the primary,  Latino was about 26%,  Viet at  ~ 29%, and White at ~38%.   The overall turn out was 35.5%. 

Chavez won 55% of the votes in San Jose District 7.  This is a traditional Viet stronghold with about 34% registered voters are Vietnamese.   Chavez also won in D4 and D8,  44% and 43% respectively.  D4 has about 22% Viet registered voters while D8 has about 24%. 

But analyzing the results further, it reveals that her strength of working closely with the community for the last 10 years was not fully exploited.  A weak and inexperience campaign team could not send out the necessary messages needed to rally the community and capture the large Viet vote that is her to lose.  

Mahan has very minimal exposure to the community since he is new and has not done anything to deserve the Viet vote.   He does not have any significant contributions or relationships with the community as Hiep Nguyen, a long time D4 resident noted. 

However, he cleverly masks his lack of records with the connection to the old Madison Nguyen's supporters and hires some of them to work for him. 

He will likely concede the Asian and Latino votes but only to a small margin.    Case in point,  he is working hard to keep Chavez from winning a 20 percentage point margin in the Viet community (which Chavez should,  considering all the relationships and work that she has with the Viet community)  by going all out  on her with political attacks.   He is also going after the younger Vietnamese voters for they might see him as a fresh face as agent of change, the  shiny penny syndrome.   By keeping his loss within 5-10 percentage points, he is hoping that the advantage with the White voters and their high turn out will give him enough to win.

His main patron is Mayor Sam Liccardo,  and he is using the same playbook that Liccardo carried out in the 2014 mayoral race to defeat a more seasoned and well known then Superivsor Dave Cortese.

After the primary, Chavez realized with Matt only 7 percentage points behind, he would give her the fight of her political career.  She astutely moved her campaign headquarters to Councilmember Davis' district and received the endorsement of Davis who won almost 11% of the votes in the mayoral primary.   Mahan admitted that was a stinger.  But the consolation price is that Davis did not win her own district in the primary,  Matt did.   

Now with 9 out of 10 city councilmembers endorsing her,  Chavez has the momentum going to the general election.  She is forcing Matt to play defensive in his own backyard for  the white vote.

She also received enforcement in the Viet community with Hai Huynh throwing his support behind her campaign.  Hai Huynh was both courted by Mahan and Chavez for they knew he can bring fund raising and people to shore up either campaign.  Since joining, he brings his throngs of supporters along and helps focus her message in the Viet community.    Her main supporters are still the  traditional older, elderly Vietnamese voters.  They are reliable voters but the community is changing and the middle-aged, well educated  Viet voters who have spent most of their lives here in the US are where Chavez has limited outreach so far. 

 

A tracking poll is currently conducted by Scotch Pine Polling & Research, a Northwest based consulting firm, should provide a better glimpse into the race when the resutls are available.   In the meantime, the conventional wisdom is that it will be a tight race and at least in the Vietnamese-American community, the negative attacks are already flying.  

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Vietnamese-American Politics in Little Saigon After Redistricting

With the new redistricting maps to reflect the 2020 census, Orange County voters will have the opportunity to elect new representatives.  The new election boundary lines put Little Saigon into a prominent political fulcrum that will help shape the county’s political landscape across county to federal.  

Orange County demographic has shifted dramatically in the 21rst century where the population is now 38% white, 34% Latino and 22% Asian. The county, once a bastion of conservatism and home to Presidents Ronald Reagan and Richard Nixon, voted against Donald Trump twice and against the recall of Gov. Gavin Newsom. 

OC Board of Supervisors drew the county map to create an Asian centric and  two Hispanic centric districts in D1, D2 and D4 respectively.  With most of Fountain Valley, Westminster and a portion of Garden Grove in D1, Asian composes over 33% of the voting age.   This seat will be hotly contested in 2024 (when D1 Supervisor Andrew Do will term out) by Vietnamese-American politicians living in the district, including current Garden Grove Councilmember Phat Bui and Fountain Valley Councilmember Michael Vo. 

With the newly created 36th Senate District where all of Little Saigon is included, current Assembly Member Janet Nguyen announced her candidacy with strong support of the Republic Party leadership.  The district has 34.3% Democrat and 36.5% Republican voters. 

 On the state assembly front, a new 70^th Assembly District combines most of Fountain Valley, Westminster and Garden Grove to create an Asian majority-minority district where about 40% of population is Asian.  Vietnamese - American voters make up an overwhelming 31.7%.  Three Vietnamese - Americans already announced their candidacy.

Newly elected in 2020,  Fountain Valley City Councilmember Ted Bui, with the behind the scene backing of Janet Nguyen, is the first to put his hat in the ring.  Nguyen arranged for her long time and trusted political consultant, Dave Gilliard,  to help run his campaign.  Ted, with little name recognition in the community and no track record, is likely be the spoiler candidate.   To some voters in the community,  he is another one of Janet Nguyen's pawn that are being misled with false promises.  

Westminster Mayor Tri Ta also has decided to jump in.  The controversial mayor is being plagued by accusation of corruption by his former Police Chief Kevin Baker in a 14 page complaint.   Baker claimed that the corruption benefited top officials and is nurtured by a culture of secretive and oppressive culture that uses “…threats, intimidation and revenge on employees and citizens who dare speak out or challenge them.”  He poignantly pointed out that “ .... the community is largely made up of vulnerable refugees from Vietnam who escaped the oppressive police controlled communist government, to only have it potentially replicated again here in Little Saigon...”

In the news for the past 2 months is the recent requested DA investigation of the illegal 2016 selling of a portion of Liberty Park, a public land, without public knowledge to Tri Ta’s major political donor.  This controversy has raised a lot of questions and uproars in the community.  The land was sold for $100,000 which was a fifth of its actual market value at that time of $500,00.  To hide from public scrutiny, the deal was approved by Tri Ta as seating mayor without public disclosure and proper hearing as required by state laws.   It was tucked in consent agenda which is normally used for run-of-the-mill items and fast track within months as Tri Ta pressured the city staff.   

As the deal is under investigation, the City Council has revealed that in the past 15 years under the guardian of Tri Ta and his political gang in power (during this period) of  former Councilmembers Andy Quach and Tyler Diep, there were 3 other dubious transactions of public properties of $0 to $1,000.   

Tri Ta is infamous in the community for being part of the “Godfather” Van Tran and his gang.  The moniker was christened by the main stream press to acknowledge the political ambition and prowess of the former state assembly member and his underlings to be the political center of Little Saigon politics.  A lot of people in Little Saigon can recall the nasty political battles between Janet Nguyen, Andrew Do against Van Tran  and his corrupted cohorts, which still left a bad taste in the community.    

Westminster City Council member Kimberly Ho also announced her candidacy for the newly created seat.  She is a tough, straight shooter who is being viewed a threat by Van Tran and his gang.  She is under vicious attack by Tri Ta for exposing his corruption on basically manipulating public properties to turn it into private financial deals that benefit his friends while the city is under budget and  revenue shortage.  Tri Ta personally went on air and asked the public to recall her.   Van Tran, Tri Ta and the third loyal member of his gang, Westminster Council member Charlie Nguyen are actively trying to recall Kimberly Ho from her current office for she opposes their hidden agenda of planting their cronies to the city while try to intimidate and manipulate city staff for their real estate development deals.  

The race for the AD70 is up for grab.  With three Republican candidates fighting for votes in the primary, a Democratic candidate will like to be in the run-off since the district is leaning Democrat, 36.8% vs. 33.2%.   Diedre Thu Ha Nguyen, the current Garden Grove Councilmember, is thinking and being asked by the Democratic Party.  She ran unsuccessful against Janet Nguyen for the now disappeared assembly seat in 2020.  She was a weak candidate then but she will likely get into the run-off again like last time just for being a Democrat.   However, unless force into this race, like many other Vietnamese-American politicians, her eye is on the D1 supervisor seat.

Whoever the candidates may be, Tri Ta is currently the most vulnerable because of the history of corruption that will be played out against him.  With 1/3 of the voters are independent, they will unlike  support him.  And the Viet voters are tired of the shenanigans and the intimidation tactics that Tri Ta, his gang  along his mentor Godfather Van Tran have exploited the community.   The divisiveness that they have caused so that they can control the politics for their own personal gains in Little Saigon is seriously being questioned.

The Need for A Representative San Jose Redistricting Boundaries

 

According to the Santa Clara County Registrar of Voters -

" Every 10 years, the United States Constitution and California’s State Constitution require federal, state and local district divisional boundary lines to be reviewed and redrawn, if necessary, to account for population growth and movement within the entire boundaries of the district. This process is known as Redistricting and is based on the results of the decennial US Census. 

The results of the redistricting process may change the congressional, state senate or assembly district or local supervisorial, city council or school district subdivision elections in order to have equal representation."

Currently, the San Jose Redistricting Advisory Commission is tasked of recommending boundary options that would have equal representation for San Jose residents.   The committee is holding public hearings and asking for inputs from residents.  Ultimately the City Council will vote to approve / disapprove the recommendations of the committee and an ordinance establishing new city council district boundaries.

San Jose City is currently the 10th largest city in the US with a population of 1,013,240 according the 2020 Census.  Asian is the largest racial group for the first time representing 35.9%.  Hispanic population is 31.6% and white alone / non-Hispanic is 25.7%.  And yet the city has not a single Asian American on the City Council representing 10 total districts.  There are currently 5 Hispanic city councilmembers which represent 50% of the City Council seats.  

 The demographic profiles of each of the 10 districts and the respective current representatives might shed light into why there are such lack of representation by Asian-American community.  Since the 2020 demographic profile data are not available yet from the city staff, we will use the 2010 data which can provide adequate background to gain some insights into the current political representation.  

Presently, there are three minority-majority districts where Latino is the majority and hence have Hispanic elected officials.   District 5 is traditionally a Hispanic district with all of its elected officials are Latino in the last 20 years.   Four other minority-majority district where White is the majority and  the elected officials are white (3) and black (1).   Districts 8 and 4 are mostly  Asian demographic but the voters elected Hispanic and White candidates.  This leave District 2 where Hispanic and White are split equally with Asian trailing.  It is not a surprise to see a Latino elected but that district can go either way base on the demographic distribution, White or Latino with  Asian as swing vote.  

The current lack of political representation by Asian-American despite their high voter turnout can be contributed to a number of factors; but the fact of the matter is with the current demographic distributions, there are 3 minority-major districts of Latino,  4 minority-majority districts for White, and only 2 for Asian.  District 2 has an equal majority of White and Hispanic residents.

Asian-American community has been so far not actively mobilized to address the inequality  demographic distribution between districts and the lack of representation.   Nevertheless, the commission should study the issue, understand the legitimate concerns under the Voting Right Act, and recommend new boundaries to reflect the population demographic so that a fair representation can be achieved for the Asian-American community.

The Myth of High Turnout By Vietnamese-American Voters

 With 95% of the precincts reported for the recall election, Santa Clara County has a turnout of about 55.6%.  This is higher than the statewide of 48%.  It is impressive considering that Gavin Newsom campaign was not active in getting out the vote in Santa Clara County.

A detailed analysis by Viet Poll Media show some interesting data for the recall election, granted these are not the final numbers since it will take time to certify the results but they are indicative: 

The Vietnamese-American registered voters are about 8.7% of the total registered voters in the county.  In San Jose, they are 13.3% since most of the eligible voters live in San Jose, the largest city in county with a population of a little over 1 million.  In comparison, Latino is 17.5% of total in Santa Clara County but 21.6% in San Jose.  

The data show that Vietnamese and Latino have the lowest turnout of all the major demographics, with the Vietnamese the worse,  trailing over 12 percentage points.   This is not surprising since the numbers from the 2016 and 2020  general elections showed a similar trend.   Only 68% Viet turnout in 2016 vs. a total turnout of 83%.  In 2020, a hotly contested election with Trump driving voters out in drove,  78% of eligible Viet actually turned out in comparison to the overall 85%.  Meanwhile, the Chinese and East Indian had turnout over 90%.

The data speaks for themselves, the myth that Viet voters have unusual high turnout is nothing but a myth. Despite all the raucous and active rallies and events with huge participation, when it is time to cast ballot, the Viet voters are either dead last or in comparable to the Latino, a community that traditionally is known for low turnout.  

Landslide Victory for Newsom Against the Recall

 With more than 2.1 million Californians signed petitions supporting a recall of  popular governor before his policies to curb the Covid-19 pandemic, the poll over the summer showed Governor Gavin Newson only barely surviving the recall. Now with less than 3 days to go,  he will likely be not only the first California to survive a recall election, but with a possible landslide victory.  

With over 7.5 million votes cast, 52%  Democrats, 27% Republicans and 21% Independents, the chances for the Republican driven recall is unlikely to success.  Little Saigon Inside polling research indicates  59% voting no on recall.  This number will end up to be lower to but still be enough to beat back the recall handily. 

The irony of course is this whether win or lose, the same cast of characters will be running in the 2022 gubernatorial election. It is after all the wild wild west and there is a lot of  much ado nothing elections.

Amassing over $70 million to spend against the recall, Newsom has shifted the momentum and made inroads with his base by focusing on his opponents.  The recall will cost the state about $220 million and this begs the question of it is about time to change the recall election process in California so that it will not be easily manipulated by misguided political operators.

A number of suggestions to stop the inflation of recalls in California have been raised like increase the threshold of signatures to 15% instead of 12%.   Whatever the solution might be, rest assure that we will have more frivolous recalls and ballot measures  than ever since there are so much money pouring into politics nowadays.   In 2020, over $1.1 billion spent in California local elections alone.  And for the record, $14.4 billion for the presidential election.   It is definitely good time to be a political consultant.