Friday, February 20, 2009

The Battle Heats Up for Recall Election

Here is the latest update and beyond in District 7:

1. About 7,000 absentee ballots sent in so far.

2. Over 19,000 registered absentee voters.

3. Total registered voters is about 32,000 (but only 26,000 voters are considered to be active voters - those that have voted in the last 3-5 years).

4. In the last November election, 80% of voters were absentee.

Prediction by LSI:

1. About 8,000 to 9,000 absentee ballots will be sent in before the deadline.

2. A total of 11,000 to 12,000 voters will cast their votes.

3. The conventional wisdom is Nguyen will win. With the support of elected officials, South Bay Labor Council, Chamber of Commerce, lobbyists, wealthy developers, powerful consultants and the mainstream media, she has everything including a war chest of over $250,000. Mayor Reed and South Bay Labor Council already publicly predicted that she will win. LSI predicts that if it is a close race, Nguyen will win. If not, Nguyen will lose by a landslide.

Current situation of both camps:

1. Nguyen's camp is really quiet this week. Except for some robocalls at 3:00 AM (Yes, 3:00 AM in the morning. A few people so far have publicly complained to City Clerk), she is just doing a lot of late night meetings looking at the number of latest polls. This is a sophisticated campaign runs by Nguyen with 50 questionnaire polling, up to date survey and of course the best technology available at her calling headquarters, South Bay Labor Council - the political machine in San Jose.

2. Labor and Nguyen are not focusing on the Vietnamese-American community anymore. To them, it is a lost cause. They will try to capture all the White votes and the remaining of the Hispanic votes. The latest number is very disturbing. It is a downward trend.

3. Recall Team's headquarters is full of activity with people making phone calls and having the last minute walking piece for the next one week. They are very well organized and understood what to do next. There are about 20 volunteers every night working. What they lack in money and the support of powerful political force and special interest groups, they make up in determination and passion. They are the underdog so of course they will need everything to overcome such overwhelming odds.

David and Goliath in every sense. The mightiest political forces in San Jose vs. a group of plain folks who united to do the right thing. History repeats itself often but will it repeat one more time?

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